• introduction: an introduction to this chapter
• timeline: events that happened to the marine reserve
• kelpbed death: in January 1993 the whole kelp forest disappeared
• urchin deaths: urchins died from eating a poisonous slime
• crayfish: the rise and fall of the crayfish population
• fish: did fish become more numerous during complete protection?
• anecdotal evidence: what informed and observant divers have seen
• publications: a list of publications and web site links
• relevant chapters on this web site:
• Marine reserves: paradise won or lost? Are marine reserves really working?
• marine science rebutted: the snapper-urchin kelp myth is based on flawed science
• Hauraki Gulf Marine Survey: our survey after the 1993 kelpbed death
• marine conservation: how conservation works and how it fails. How the benefits of marine reserves have been exaggerated
• frequently asked questions about marine reserves, your quick no-nonsense introduction to marine reserves and their myths
• principles of degradation: understanding how degradation works and what to look for
• examples of decay: examples of marine degradation, the plankton balance hypothesis and the DDA plankton method

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Marine reserves disappoint because mysteriously they are losing fish rather than gaining them, even though we are quite certain that this was not caused by fishing, as even unfished species are disappearing at similar rates. Of course the Goat Island marine reserve is not exempted from degradation, as shown by all monitoring conducted here. Note however, that scientists focused mainly on the commercial species crayfish, snapper and blue cod. Much of what disappeared must therefore be reconstructed from anecdotal evidence, which is the most important part of this chapter because it is the only place where this has been documented.

This chapter about monitoring the Goat Island marine reserve begins with a timeline chronicling the major events affecting resident populations. Then it looks at the various populations that collapsed one after the other.

As one can see, the marine reserve has suffered a major decline in nearly all species. To understand why and how, please read the decay section.

• 1975 - the marine reserve was gazetted by an Act of Parliament, which was the official act in its creation
• 1977 - the marine reserve was officially opened and not long thereafter signs put up.
• 1978 - first fish survey done by Tony Ayling. Also crayfish surveys begin.
• 1983 - a year of major mass fish mortalities noticed by us, extending to the Poor Knights islands and further north. Scallops die from being suffocated by plankton organisms. Giant heart urchin died for the same reasons.
• 1986 - cyclone Bola rains out over New Zealand, causing mud storms and massive runoff.
• 1988 -  second fish survey by Russell Cole
• 1992 - another year of mass fish mortalities observed by us. Massive plankton blooms in October, documented by the Leigh Laboratory. In December the kelp forest died for lack of light.
• 1993 - early January, cyclone Oli removed the entire kelp forest and no trace was found as the kelp crowns had the consistency of soaked paper. The Marine Lab did a half-hearted investigation (Babcock & Cole 1993), reason why we did ours, resulting in some astounding discoveries about the extent of the plankton blooms, urchin habitats, habitat zoning and more.
• 1995/96 - a poisonous matting dinoflagellate (brown slime) later identified as an Ostreopsis species, killed anything that grazed on it, particularly sea urchins. As the urchins disappeared, the stalked kelp moved in, thereby turning the barren zones into kelp forest. See our large rebuttal of Babcock's top-down trophic cascades hypothesis (snappers eat urchins, urchins eat kelp thus more snappers means more kelp).
• 1998 - the Goat Island Road is widened, resulting in hundreds of tonnes of mud washed into the reserve. Perhaps by coincidence, the crayfish walked out, leaving 15% in the reserve.
• 2000 - a new crayfish survey finds that 5 out of 6 crayfish disappeared from the marine reserve.
• 2004 - the latest crayfish survey finds that crayfish numbers are increasing again.
• 2008/09 - Ostreopsis dinoflagellate slime has invaded the intertidal rocky shore, leaving few survivors.

Our survey established the extent of the plankton blooms, and we discovered that there had also been one the year before in 1991/92.
 

Our habitat survey of 1993 was able to locate the extent of the kelpbed loss due to dense plankton blooms, both for 1993 and the year before. Note the thin dashes, the many transect dives done in winter.

1993. Cyclone Oli sheared the crowns off the stalks and pulverised them as the kelp had been dead for months. Not a trace of the kelp canopy was found.

2005. Observant visitors to the marine reserve will notice that the kelp there is no longer slimy, as healthy plants would be. Many are in fact already dead, looking like this plant. In 2009 most kelp plants were seriously ill and dying.

2005. These decaying kelp plants have lost all their food value, reason perhaps why butterfish that feed on kelp, declined precipitously. Notice some butterfish bit holes in the kelp fronds.

2009. Insignificant storms now cause major wash-ups of broken kelp that does not belong in the urchin barrens (storm barrens), resulting in wastes decaying in the shallows, and like a rotten apple in the fruit bowl, affecting all species living here, also those in the intertidal. This is food that should have been eaten!

1993. Urchin barrens disappeared in two marine reserves (red), Goat Island and Tawharanui. Scientists wrongly concluded that this was a marine reserves effect and didn't look at nearby areas (yellow) outside marine reserves where it also happened.

This aerial photo was taken in April 1999, showing the main barren area of the Goat Island marine reserve. Notice how the kelp is beginning to invade, but most of the invasion happened suddenly a year later. Scientists maintain that it was a gradual process that began before 1980, which is proved untrue by this photo.

2002. A patch of pink turf (a turfing coralline alga) heavily infested with brown Ostreopsis slime. Notice that there are no grazers of any kind.

2003. A common green urchin (Evechinus chloroticus) is dying after grazing a swath through Ostreopsis slime.

Crayfish Crayfish (Jasus edwardsii) is being monitored on an irregular basis, particularly once their numbers appeared to even out at a maximum of around 30 animals per 500 square metres. In 1998 we noticed that the usual moults were absent in the shallows where we conduct guided snorkel dives for schools. A preliminary survey by ourselves showed that many had indeed disappeared. We informed the scientists at the Marine Laboratory but they ridiculed us, saying that there were two scientific groups working with crayfish and that everything was okay. In April after the school visits, we did a proper survey and estimated that 75% of all crayfish had disappeared. Again we informed the Laboratory but again we were met with ridicule. After all, two groups were doing crayfish research at the time and they should have noticed! Then in 2001 they did the planned crayfish survey (paid for by DOC) which showed that 5 out of 6 crayfish had indeed disappeared. The graph on right shows how crayfish became much more numerous than outside and how the population collapsed between 1995 and 2002 (in 1998 to be precise). We were being proved right again. The upswing after 2001 was hailed as 'marine reserve recovery', expecting densities to recover fully. However, the 2014 crayfish survey (dashed green after 2004) showed continuing decline to pre-protection levels [Haggitt & Freeman 2014]. Similar bad news came from other protected areas, and of course the blame was laid on fishermen, what else? Read the article in a local newspaper, (12 Sept 2016): Crayfish decline continues to impact marine reserve. In this article, marine scientists from Leigh are pitched against commercial fishermen of Leigh. Scientists allege that overfishing outside affects the stocks inside the reserve. However, that would refute the dogma that marine reserves "serve as an insurance policy against overfishing". And actual  landings although showing a 5-10% dip  in 2000-2003, refute "excessive overfishing" resembling the marine reserve crash (see graph below).  Commercial fishermen maintain that stock management "is well in hand" and that occasional dips in landings can be expected.

Note that the crayfish population outside is heavily influenced by the marine reserve in what is called fishing displacement. In other words, by closing a good crayfish habitat off, it increases the fishing pressure outside. Although the positive difference between inside and outside is hailed as a benefit, it is in fact a serious liability. It so happens that in the Leigh area, two marine reserves were created on good crayfish habitat, leaving a small area of no more than 30% inbetween, now heavily overfished. Consider this blatantly ignorant statement by a marine scientist (Haggitt & Kelly 2004): "the 5 km long Cape Rodney to Okakari Point Marine Reserve [Goat Island] contains the equivalent of lobsters from 75 km of fished Leigh coastline". Such is the disgraceful effect of displaced fisheries.

Reader please note that best management would be to fish at higher stock levels, which is also more profitable.
Note also that during our Hauraki Gulf marine survey in 1993, we remarked:"Crayfish has become one of the rarest organisms in the Gulf. Very few were encountered. We found more boat anchors than crayfish and also more of the rare giant boarfish!" link.
 
 

1996: crayfish 'cities' like this small one were once common but disappeared after 1998. They were in fact so common that I postponed taking good photos of them. Now this poor image from 1996 is all that remains and it appears nobody else has a better image.

2003: this was once a crayfish 'city' off Tabletop Rock, with some 50 animals in it and another 70-80 outside the frame. Now it houses a single bug. Notice the sediment everywhere and one consumed sea urchin in the foreground.

Aug 1997: road side collapse

August 1997: the Goat Island road was widened and hardened but its verges and banks were not stabilised, resulting in slips and clips as shown here. During the winter of 1997 hundreds of tonnes of mud washed into the marine reserve. The sea was muddy for many months. Was this the reason the crayfish left the marine reserve? It is interesting to note that the thousands of visitors to the marine reserve did nothing about it, among whom: The University of Auckland's Leigh Marine Laboratory whose research depends on the health of the marine reserve. The Department of Conservation who is responsible for the health of the marine reserve and any substances deposited there. The Rodney District Council who signed off the road works, knowing full well that they did not conform to standards, and that the road banks were unstable. Nothing was done afterwards either. Notice the damage to the fence which the owner needed to repair himself. Council would not comply. Such is our total apathy towards the environment (sigh).

The marine reserve was gazetted in 1975 but in 1977 the reserve was officially opened, signs were placed and policing began. So 1977 is the effective date of the establishment of the marine reserve. From its early days we have the fish counts performed by Dr Tony Ayling, shown here. The only fish species threatened at the time by line fishing were snapper and blue cod. Threatened by spearfishing were in addition red moki and butterfish (Odax pullus) (not counted). Surprisingly, snapper did not recover, blue cod somewhat and red moki a lot. Red moki (Cheilodactylus spectabilis) is a resident fish that stays in an area near a good sleeping hole. Snapper (Pagrus auratus) is highly migrant. Spotty (Notolabrus celidotus) belongs particularly to sheltered areas (inside harbours) with poor water quality where they abound.
 

Red Moki have become the reserve's most successful fish species because they do not migrate but rather stay on the rocky shore near sleeping holes where they congregate. The fish also grow old and feed from invertebrates hiding in coralline turf. All they need is found on the rocky reef. They are also sociable rather than territorially competitive. About 20 fish bed down in this sheltered Moki Hole.

Snapper are mainly migratory, occasionally visiting the reserve, even though some may stay for several years. For them the island is an oasis adjacent to a 40km stretch of beach and a very large open sandy area. From their shelter they forage far and wide. For this reason, the Goat Island marine reserve is not typical of the coast.

In 1988 another fish count was done by Russell Cole (Cole et al. 1990 ) who compared fish populations after 10 years of protection. He used Ayling's data for comparison. The table below gives the details for several study areas in shallow water (shallow broken rock habitat) and on the urchin barrens (rock flats).

From the table above it can be seen that variability was extremely high but by adding the totals across each habitat, a picture emerges that is rather consistent. The table on right shows relative population gains (>1.0) and losses (<1.0) from a starting population of 1.00 for each species, calculated from the table above. As one can see, only spotties are the clean winners. Note that spotties are not a popular angling or spearing fish, and have never been threatened in the reserve area. Its increase to 236% (+1.36) could be attributed to a deterioration in water quality, which also explains the losses in the other species. Quite contradictory to common perception, snappers did not increase while goatfish (Upeneichthys lineatus), blue cod (Parapercis colias) and parore (Girella tricuspidata) suffered heavy losses, diminishing four-fold (-0.8). This agrees with anecdotal observations. Note that silver drummer (Kyphosus sydneyanus) and marblefish (Aplodactylus arctidens) occur in such low numbers that their losses may not be real. However, anecdotal observations have seen a substantial decrease in the herbivores parore, silver drummer, butterfish and marblefish. The table above leaves out the raw data for fish counts over the kelp forest but the publication shows bar charts for 7 of the above species, with goatfish and spotty more common outside the reserve whereas snapper and leatherjacket are less common outside. Overall there is about 40% less fish outside the marine reserve (0.57, 0.6, 0.6). Independent counts for snapper show that small snapper (10-20cm) are far more common outside the reserve whereas medium-sized fish (20-30cm) are equal in numbers and large fish (30-40cm) far more common inside the reserve.

shallows rock flats spotty female -0.10 +1.36 spotty male -0.30 +0.32 snapper -0.70 -0.76 goatfish -0.78 -0.63 leatherjacket -0.56 -0.02 blue cod -0.84 -0.13 red moki -0.76 +0.97 parore -0.80 silver drummer -0.50 marblefish -0.82 Relative gains/losses for most common fish species between 1978 and 1988. Variability was high. Source Cole et al. 1990.

• Once visitors to the marine reserve began breaking sea urchins to feed the fishes, as an immediate response various large seaweeds (macroalgae) began occupying the bare rocks near the beach. These were mainly the featherweed (Carpophyllum plumosum).
• In the beginning, Shag Rock was topped by lush cartilage weed (Xiphophora chondrophylla) with a band of red fretsaw weed (Vidalia colensoi, Osmundaria c.). In the shallows one frequently encountered the green grapeweed (Caulerpa geminata). These have all disappeared, taking a lot of colour out of the shallows.
• In the beginning there were multitudes of pink golfball sponges (Tethya ingalli) and yellow nipple sponges (Polymastia croceus) with the occasional orange nipple sponge (Polymastia granulosa). On vertical rock faces, sheltered from sunlight one would find the hydroid tree (Solanderia sp). All these species have disappeared although the cartilage weed came back a little in 2009 which also turned out to be a good recruitment year for snapper.
• In the middle of the Goat Island Channel one could find venus cockles (Venerupis largillierti?) and numerous eleven-armed stars (Coscinasterias calamaria) predating on these, as well as numerous sand octopus (Octopus gibbsi). In fact, a visiting scientist (Dr Robin Crump) was studying this community.
• On the shallow barren rock flats shown in the aerial photo above lived a large community (acres) of brown bearded mussels (modiolus areolatus) predated upon by large numbers of eleven-armed prickly stars (Coscinasterias calamaria). Divers often broke these mussels to feed the fishes. Now none are left and the whole habitat has disappeared.
• Where the marine reserve begins on its western flank, is not far away from a special habitat that I call the 'shell trap'. During storms shells are washed up on the Pakiri Beach, and usually end up on its eastern rocky shore where shells are trapped in gullies and deep sand habitat bordering the rocky shore. As a result one could find very large patches of fan mussels (Atrina zelandica), a very large horse mussel that cements its byssus threads to the sand, just peeping out above it. Their populations were so dense that they were pushing one another out of the sand as they grew. Sand octopi (Octopus gibbsi) were then ready to eat them. After Cyclone Bola in 1986, this whole area was covered in a thick sticky mud cake that took 4 years to 'dissolve'. The mussels never returned.
• In 1976 the numbers of blue maomao (Scorpis violaceus) were legendary and we could see large patches of several acres each, of iridescent blue frothing in the distance. Gradually blue maomao became less numerous, also killed in large numbers in 1992, 2001. During the times the public was feeding them, one could find several hundred in the Goat Island channel but in 2009 it was almost deserted. We noticed during the whole period 1990-2000 that the fish remained young and never grew any older than 3-4 years. Also on the Poor Knights the deep blue large 10-year old blue maomao (Scorpis violaceus) had disappeared. In 2009 I did not see any during an entire dive at the deep side of Goat Island, where they normally occur. The large trevallies also became very rare.
• With the blue maomao, also other plankton feeding fish disappeared like trevally (Psudocaranx dentex), jack mackerel (Trachurus novaezelandiae), koheru (Decapterus koheru) and most conspicuously the huge kahawai schools (Arripis trutta) frothing the water as they swam past. We mentioned the demise of the demoiselles before. Note that these species still occur in very low numbers.
• In the early days one would find numerous baby demoiselles (Chromis dispilus) in Goat Island Channel, often hiding between the spines of sea urchins. Over the barrens off the west point of the island at Pempheris Point, one would find numerous males nesting while females were hovering in mid water. This all disappeared by 1993.
• Since 1996 the common sea urchin (Evechinus chloroticus) has been decimated in numbers and the purple urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersi) has become very rare indeed, as also the black angelfish (Parma alboscapularis).
• The longfinned triplefin (Ruanoho decemdigitatus) was once reasonably common if one knew where to look. Now it has almost completely disappeared. Compare this with their abundance in the Hahei marine reserve.
• Large long-snouted pipefish (Stigmatopora sp.) and even seahorses (Hippocampus abdominalis) were encountered frequently but they disappeared by 1990. Occasionally one can still encounter a smooth pipefish (Stigmatopora macropterygia) but they too have become very rare. It is fair to say that the seahorse has become extinct in our area, including the local estuaries as far as Auckland.
• In 2009 most if not all of the kelp was seriously ill and dying. The new recruits didn't fare much better and barren areas began to reappear.
• In the early 1980s we noticed the brown Ostreopsis slime in autumn in sheltered places but although killing an urchin here and there, it never became a serious threat. By 1992 Ostreopsis became a major threat, not only here but all along the East Coast, not exempting remote islands either. (Cavallis, Poor Knights, Great Barrier, Little Barrier, Mercuries, Mayor Island)
• In 2007/08 there was a mysterious influx of the schooling triplefin (Obliquichthys mariannae) which was never present before. In 2009 we noticed that their numbers had declined steeply.
• In 2008/09 we discovered that Ostreopsis has done its kill in the intertidal rocky shore of the local reef flats, such as Echinoderm Reef. Ostreopsis does not survive above water, and because of this has selectively killed the catseye snail (Turbo smaragdus), very noticeable because these snails can become old and large. The following species also disappeared almost completely: all species of brittle star, all triplefins, rockfish, all sea hares and even porcelain crabs. Our findings were confirmed by Dr Bill Ballantine.

•  Russell C Babcock & Russ G Cole ( Jan-May 1993): The extent of die-back of the kelp Ecklonia radiata in the Cape Rodney to Okakari Pt Marine Reserve.  Advice to the Department of Conservation, June 1993 University of Auckland Leigh Marine Laboratory
• Cole Russell G , Tony M Ayling, Robert G Creese 1990: Effects of marine reserve protection at Goat Island, northern New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 1990, Vol. 24:197-210. http://www.rsnz.org/publish/nzjmfr/1990/19.php
• Haggitt T, Kelly S 2004: Cape Rodney to Okakari Point Marine Reserve Lobster Monitoring Programme: 2004 Survey. Dept of Cons. http://www.doc.govt.nz/upload/documents/conservation/marine-and-coastal/marine-protected-areas/report-on-lobster-monitoring.pdf
• Haggitt T, Freeman D (2014):CROP & TMR Lobster Monitoring Programme:2014 Survey. Dept of Cons.
• http://www.doc.govt.nz/Documents/conservation/marine-and-coastal/marine-protected-areas/crop-lobster-survey-2014.pdf
• Kelly, S. 2001: Temporal variation in the movement of the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. Marine and Freshwater Research 53: 213-211.
• Kelly, S; MacDiarmid, A.B. 2003: Movement patterns of mature spiny lobsters, Jasus edwardsii, from a marine reserve. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 37: 149-158
• Kelly, S.; Scott, D.; MacDiarmid, A.B.; Babcock, R.C. 2000: Spiny lobster, Jasus edwardsii, recovery in marine reserves. Biological Conservation 92:359-369.
• Nick T Shears. Russell C Babcock, March-June 1998. Marine reserves demonstrate top-down control of community structure on temperate reefs . Springer Verlag May 2002.

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