Global climate
Understanding Earth's climate system
or
the bible of global non-warming
By Dr J Floor Anthoni (2010)
www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate.htm
(This chapter is best navigated in a normal page-width window, and  by opening links in a new tab of your browser)
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The Internet is abuzz with global warming issues which have polarised those who believe that humans are causing catastrophic global warming against those who believe this is not so. A United Nations panel (IPCC) was established to study the matter in order to advise governments of necessary action. Then Climategate exposed how this small group of people defrauded the truth. All this time an urgent need existed for a web site that clearly and concisely explains how the planet's climate works and how it varies, yet in a way that ordinary people can understand, while totally devoid of politics, beliefs and ulterior motives. Read on - with care.
An introduction to why this large section was written, and what it covers. (located on this page) (7 pages)
A timeline of important events in the fear for global warming (on this page)
Planet Earth 'hangs' by an invisible thread between a sun of 6000ºC and outer space of -273ºC, reason why its temperature cannot be constant. Yet, miraculously it is more stable than expected. (37 pages)
Water is the strangest substance on Earth and also the most common. Not surprisingly it plays a decisive role in weather and climate. Even so it is grossly misunderstood and underestimated. (19 pages)
Measuring temperature is not as easy as it seems, and measuring past temperatures of thousands and millions of years ago, even less. Learn about the types of fraud committed to temperature data. (38 pages)
It is widely believed that cumulative burning of fossil fuels has upset the climate to such extent that catastrophic global warming could follow, but what is the story? (31 pages)
Higher levels of carbondioxide are beneficial to plants and the world at large. This page examines the ecology of carbon, plant ecology and how scientific growth experiments are done. Examples of important plant species are provided. (12 pages)
From time to time, valuable documents appear in the blogosphere, some of which have been saved here for future reference. (29 pages)
What is normal global climate change? A question we should have asked in the first place. Now with the legacy of the late Dr Joseph Fletcher, there is an answer: the change in wind strength over a 174 year cycle. Very important reading because it provides new insight. (15 pages). Dr Fletcher's lecture (2001) (24 pages)
Be amazed about how rotten science has become and who are the perpetrators of this scandal.
Read this extensive chapter to complete your understanding of climate and circulation, and much more (large)
Many believe that increasing levels of CO2 will acidify the seas with disastrous consequences for sea life, but is this true? Threat or fraud? How can one understand it? (large)
Soil is our most precious and also most abused resource. How is it formed, how does it work and what does it need? What lives on it, where why and how? How are we losing it and what must we do? (large)
Climategate has exposed corrupt scientists and their institutions. Here we mention names in order to hold them accountable. Lest we forget; we owe it to our children. We also dissect some utterly disgraceful articles and statements from the scientific establishment. (22 pages)
 Internet links
  • www.ipcc.ch/  - IPCC home page where its assessment reports can be found. 
  • www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/ISPM.pdf - Independent Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Working Group 1) (64 pp) An alternative and more realistic summary than that of the IPCC.
  • A concise history of the greenhouse effect, by Timothy Casey: http://greenhouse.geologist-1011.net/, describing the work of Fourier, Tyndall, Arrhenius and others, also clearing up some misunderstandings, showing that CO2 has no effect.
  • www.aip.org/history/climate/ - the history of climate research. by Spencer Weart with many links. Note a pro-AGW site! Large and detailed but somewhat naive.Historical gems.
  • www.climate4you.com/ a treasure trove of climate data and explanations. Reliable.
  • www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/  - reliable information about global warming with hundreds of graphs and maps.
  • members.shaw.ca/sch25/FOS/Climate_Change_Science.html - Climate Change Science by Ken Gregory educational and succinct. Important reference!
  • web.me.com/uriarte/Earths_Climate/Earths_Climate_History.html   - Antón Uriarte (2010): Earth's climate history. An extensive and unbiased account.
  • http://ceos.snes.fr:8100/cdron-98/ceos1/science/dg/dgcon.htm -: Dr D C Griersmith (2000): A review of atmospheric characteristics: general principles. CEOS is the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites.
  • http://z4.invisionfree.com/Popular_Technology/index.php?showtopic=2050  - huge list of links
  • http://folk.uio.no/tomvs/esef/esef0.htm  - heaps of links to important papers Web-info about CO2 and the "Greenhouse Effect" Doom; by Tom V. Segalstad
  • http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=page_glossary.jsp?alpha=all  - NOAA's extensive glossary of climate
  • http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/146138/146138climate change is natural: 100 reasons why, by the European Foundation (2009)
  • http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html900 papers critical of AGW. An excellent compilation of peer-reviewed papers.
  • http://www.trevoole.co.uk/Questioning_Climate/Climate_Facts_for_Policymakers.pdfQuestioning Climate for Policymakers by Jonathan Drake. easy reading.
  • The anti-global warming resource: links to good news http://z4.invisionfree.com/Popular_Technology/ar/t2050.htm 

  •  
    related chapters
    Sea water: properties of sea water, with its gases (10p)
    Periodic table of elements: handy to have, with the significance of important elements
    A log of recent changes to this section (on this page)
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    Introduction
    The climate, and with it temperature, is of critical importance to the functioning of society and people's well-being. Because a human generation lasts no longer than 60 years, excluding early childhood and senility, we see only a short period of the courses that climates are taking. So we are inclined to think that the world around us remains in a steady state, that tomorrow is like yesterday. And indeed, the world's climates have been remarkably steady.
    But recently, we have been witnessing some warming, while at the same time the awareness arose that perhaps we, ourselves, were the cause of this warming. The obvious culprit is thought to be carbondioxide emitted by industry and our comfortable way of life because it has long been known that it blocks part of the 'thermal' infrared radiation. For example, our 'sister' planet Venus has an atmosphere consisting of carbondioxide, and its temperature is very much higher than expected, measuring over 400 degrees Celsius, more than enough to melt lead. So more and more people became concerned that the same fate, run-away global warming, may befall Earth, or Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW).

    It didn't take long before the vast majority of people were drawn into this scare scenario, predicting catastrophes from melting ice caps, rising sea levels, floods, diseases spreading, loss of species, dying corals and sea life, and much, much more. World conferences were organised to jolt politicians into action, which led to the inauguration of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to advise what is happening, how serious, and what to do. In the meantime, the World Wide Web matured, reaching billions of people with millions of pages of scary predictions. There appeared universal consensus (by the 'warmists') that 'the science was settled' and that it was now time for action - very costly action.

    IPCC: The greenhouse effect is real; it is a well understood effect, based on established scientific principles.

    However, in reality, the science is far from settled, and skeptical scientists (the 'skeptics') who had been blocked from the scientific process, began to use the Internet to disperse criticism and alternative observations and explanations.

    "It's very disturbing that we do not understand the climate on a planet [Venus] that is so much like the Earth. It is telling us that we really don't understand the Earth. We have ended up with a lot of mysteries." - Professor Fred Taylor, a planetary scientist based at Oxford University and one of the ESA's chief advisers for the Venus Express mission


    This is where I became involved, and from here on, this introduction is about my (Floor Anthoni) personal motivations and observations. Rewind to 1987 when I began to realise that the seas around New Zealand were degrading at an accelerating pace. It motivated me to stop doing what I did (computers and electronics) and to begin 'saving the sea'. That meant a lot of re-schooling (in marine ecology). I soon realised that education was the key to conservation because we need to learn more before we can 'do the right thing for the right reasons at the right time'. In 1997 the Internet led the way, and I began writing this very large educational web site. My aim is 'accelerated learning' such that the reader can learn 100 times faster than I did.

    With very large chapters like oceanography, soil, degradation and ocean acidification already completed, a large chapter about climate and global warming was just the next step. I expected that this would have been done by someone else a long time ago, but to this day, there is no web site that could qualify. Sure, there are scores of extensive web sites, both in the 'warmist' camp and in the opposite camp, but one can easily get lost in the way they confuse. A site is needed that provides critical step-by-step learning, while dissecting the science and throwing challenges in as well, and all that without bias. But you need to open your mind, because there is a lot of science to learn, and many new viewpoints discovered by myself.

    It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows.


    So here it is. This section is split into seven new chapters added to three already existing ones, completing the trilogy of land, sea and air:

    Chapter 1: Marble in space. The world hangs by an imaginary thread between the hot sun and cold space. It has managed to stabilise its temperature somewhat but large swings (the ice ages) are still there. Here you'll learn about imaginary atmospheres to understand ours, and about albedo, Milankovic cycles, the restless sun, the influence of cosmic radiation and other influences. You will also learn about the major faults in the IPCC's theory of heat transfer by thermal radiation. The debate about global warming from carbondioxide, should have ended here.

    Chapter 2: Water, ice and vapour. Water is the strangest, yet most common substance on Earth. Many of its strange properties are what stabilises the climate, causes ice ages, and most importantly, on which life depends. You'll learn about its physical properties, humidity, latent heat, ice shelves, glaciers and ice ages. Much of this chapter contains 'old' knowledge, presented in a new way.

    Chapter 3: Measuring temperature. It is surprisingly difficult to measure temperature in a way that matters to understanding climate and its changes. You'll learn about thermometers, the Stevenson Screen, Urban Heat Island effects, weather balloons, paleothermometers, proxies and where the heat content of Earth is found. You will also learn about the massive frauds that have been committed to make it seem that Earth is warming faster than ever before.

    Chapter 4: Anthropogenic global warming, or how fossil fuels are thought to warm the planet and cause climate change. You'll learn about the IPCC and its computer models, to discover that a massive fraud is in the making. You'll learn about hockey stick graphs and the basis of proof offered by the IPCC. You will learn about the science in support of AGW and where it fails or leaves doubt. Also in this area there has been much deliberate fraud.

    Chapter 5: Greening planet. Both rising temperatures and rising carbondioxide concentrations are very beneficial to all life. Here you'll discover the positive sides of carbondioxide and how plants react.

    Chapter 6: Miscellaneous gems from the Web. Now and then a gem of wisdom is found in blogs, comments and other postings, here saved for posterity. An interesting read but you can skip it if you like.

    Chapter 7: What is natural climate change? What natural climate forcings have been working long before humans existed, and how do these influence the climate? Do they explain recent warming and future cooling? Do they refute the global warming scare? This chapter is based on the seminal work of Dr Joseph Fletcher whose seminar (Jul 2000) has been reproduced here, in his own words. The wind factor has been overlooked by the scientific community. Very important reading and uniquely, only on this site!

    Chapter 8: Hall Of Shame. Science deals with facts, experiments and numerical representations of the natural world around us. However, the "science" of global warming  does not. Instead of global climate changes are presumed to be natural, unless and until specific evidence is forthcoming for human causation, the proof is reversed to global climate changes are presumed to be due to human-related carbon dioxide emissions, unless and until specific evidence indicates otherwise. With tens of thousands of scientists uncritically in the "warmist" camp, the whole of science has been corrupted beyond repair. If experiment disagrees with the hypothesis, the hypothesis is wrong.This chapter shows you how rotten science has become. Also read Dr Bob Carter's analysis

    Don't miss out reading the other chapters as well:

    Ocean acidification: the scare industry migrated from global warming to climate change to ocean acidification but here you'll discover how the ocean's chemistry really works, what is known and not known, and why so many experiments have been fraudulent.

    Oceanography: about the oceans, the biggest part of Earth by far. You'll discover how waves work, tides, storms, dunes and beaches and much more. This also contains the circulations of water and air and how climate and weather are formed around the world.

    Soil: this very large chapter introduces you to our most important resource, how it is formed, what lives on it and where and why, and how we are losing both its quality and quantity, and what we must do. It also makes you understand the major biomes/habitats in the world. When all is said and done, our major concern should be with the loss of soil and water.

    Conclusion? A conclusion is not needed. Just let the facts speak for themselves, try to UNDERSTAND and make up your own mind. Is the IPCC report accurate, inaccurate or fraudulent? Is climate understood, poorly understood or misunderstood? Is 'climate change' natural or caused by humanity? Is warming inconsequential, worrisome or catastrophic? Is the science (knowledge) settled, not settled,  mainly absent or corrupted? Etc.

    In no other branch of science is the science 'settled' or the evidence 'incontrovertible'. This is strong evidence that Climate Science is not science at all.
    I am indebted to the many scientists who often spent their entire career trying to extract meaningful data from the past. I have also been fortunate with the development of the Internet and am equally indebted to so many people who shared their ideas so unselfishly. Yet so much confusion has been caused and spread by so few dishonest people.

    Thousands of papers have been published, yet so very few are worth citing.

    Finally, don't be intimidated by the amount of time needed to study all of the above. Think for a moment how much time it has taken me to put it all together and for thousands of scientists to deliver the data. I have included many drawings and graphics so you won't need to worry about the calculations. Even so, it is only natural to read some of it several times. Spend time studying the graphs because they have great stories to tell. And if there are things that are not quite clear, or should you find mistakes, e-mail me so that it can be fixed.
     
    If these chapter were useful to you, tell others, as many as you can and as soon as you can. Link to this chapter from whichever website. If you are financially comfortable, consider making a donation. Together we can make a better world.

    we need to do the right thing for the right reasons at the right time,
    because we owe this to our children - Floor Anthoni


    Disclaimer
    I am not a climatologist but have a keen eye for observation, a wide interest in science and a critical mind trained in analysing big problems, breaking them apart and finding the rules within. I am not paid by anybody. This is a labour of love, a gift to future generations.
    Floor Anthoni, May 2010.

     
    ice age is ending - must be our fault

     
    A divided world
    The global warming scare has divided the world unevenly into three camps: the warmers, the warm skeptics and the cool skeptics. It is an indication that the science is not at all settled, as claimed repeatedly by the warmists.

    The warmists
    The warmists believe that Earth's surface and atmosphere are cooled by out-radiation, warmed by re-radiation and back-radiation, as proclaimed by the UN IPCC. Their hypothesis states that CO2 increases back-radiation and thus temperature. Worse still, they assume that a slight warming releases more of the natural warming gas water vapour and that this causes positive feedback (amplification). When programmed into their computer models, predictions of warming become indeed quite dire, reasons to be extremely worried, they say. About 99% of the world and nearly 100% of the media support this, and banks too, as they see the trade in carbon credits as a sorely needed new financial bubble and cash cow. Literally tens of thousands of scientific articles and tens of millions of news articles, blogs and comments are based on this hypothesis. Yet no effect has ever been measured.

    The warm skeptics
    The warm skeptics (my terminology) believe in the IPCC warming hypothesis but think that the warmists exaggerate their claims. Instead of 3.5ºC for a doubling of CO2, their estimates are 0.7-1.5ºC. These people are still in a very small minority and are not backed by the media, neither do they share in the rich CO2 handouts/subsidies. These people also point out that more CO2 is good for everyone including nature, and so is some warming up to 5ºC. Some 30,000 scientists signed a statement to that effect. No reason to worry.

    "The influence of mankind on climate is trivially true and numerically insignificant." Richard Lindzen 

    The cool skeptics
    The cool skeptics (my term) claim that CO2 has no effect on temperature whatsoever. They arrive at this conclusion by understanding the physics of the atmosphere which insists that the surface and the lower atmosphere do not cool by out-radiation etc, but by contact, conduction and convection. The cooling rate is indeed identical to that of the planet Venus which has an atmosphere of nearly 100% CO2 (2500 times as much). They are backed by several hard facts, but their numbers are indeed very small, too small to be heard. 
    The whole irony of the global warming debate is that this very small group is right and the rest (99.99%) are wrong. Isn't that interesting? Imagine tens of thousands of scientific publications ready for the dustbin and trillions of dollars mis-spent and lost for future generations and the poor? A whole generation of children scared for nothing? Perhaps this may fire you up to read our large climate chapter from beginning to end.But the scary IPCC predictions did not happen:
        * Global temperature is rising more slowly than IPCC’s least estimate; No rise for 15 years.In 20th century not exceeding natural variation.
        * Sea level has been rising for eight years at slowest rate, just 1.3 inches(3cm)/century; Atolls will not drown
        * Ocean heat content has barely risen in 6 years;There is no invisible heat store
        * Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are quieter than for 30 years; No catastrophic climate change
        * Global sea-ice extent has changed little in 30 years;Antarctica has expanded.
        * Methane concentration is up just 20 parts per billion since 2000; Flattening out
        * The tropical hot-spot  in the upper troposphere the IPCC predicts as our footprint/smoking gun is absent;
        * Outgoing radiation is escaping to space much as usual. No measurable change
       *  CO2 follows temperature and not the other way, both seasonally and in ice ages. Thus CO2 does not cause warming.
     

    The whole irony of the global warming debate is that 99.99% are wrong. Isn't that interesting? - Floor Anthoni

    To date, and despite all the public hysteria, no scientist has been able to isolate and measure the theoretical warming effect of human CO2 emissions on global temperatures - Geologist Dr. Bob Carter

    warmists for various reasons (link)
    • “The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” —Professor Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
    • • “The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.” —Dr. David Frame, Climate modeler, Oxford University
    • • “It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” —Paul Watson, Co-founder of Greenpeace
    • • “Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.” —Sir John Houghton, First Chairman of the IPCC
    • • “No matter if the science of global warming is all phony ... climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” —Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment
    "We are hostage to a planetary scandal over climate change , a war machine whose aim is to keep us in fear." - Philippe Verdier, weather chief at France Télévisions


     
    Timeline
    Here is a time line of important events in the history of climatic research and the narrative of manmade global warming.


    .


    What's new?
    yyyymmdd
    20110820 - New Chapter7: What is natural global climate change? 15pp. Based on Dr Joseph Fletcher's lecture (2001) 24pp. Unique observations. must-read.
    20110819 - Global average temperature in perspective, after graphs published by Erl Happ, in Chapter3.
    20110816 - The effect of winds on global sea levels explained and how the world's average is misrepresented. Chapter4.
    20110816 - Does the Stevenson Screen measure surface temperature? Has IR outradiation been measured? In Climate3.
    20110813 - The work of Joseph Fletcher has largely been forgotten, but here is a whole chapter devoted to his revolutionary discoveries.
    20110721 - The missing oxygen in chapter 4 updated with suggestions from Ferdinand Engelbeen.
    20110720 - Chapter6 updated with more gems from the Web.
    20110703 - Past temperatures added to chapter 3 to put present temperatures in perspective.
    20110528 - Methane misconceptions added to Chapter 4.
    20110416 - The temperature of the atmosphere of Venus between 0.2 and 1 bar is identical to that of Earth, proving that CO2 cannot have any influence on global temperature. Earth's 'greenhouse effect' is caused by the lapse rate of any compressible gas.
    20110416 - Kiel&Trenberth radiation diagram is nonsense because energy transmissions within a system cannot exceed the energy entering the system. All global climate models are fraudulent because of this.
    20110304 - Is polar temperature important and should it be included in the average world temperature?
    20110123 - Extreme weather events of Dec 2010 ... explained, and threat of famines in Chapter 2.
    20110104 - Jonathan Drake's research on the warming caused by the loss of thermometers added in Chapter 3.
    20100804 - Chapter 3: temperature corruption. How is it done? What is the state of the temperature record? Why?
    20100801 - Chapter 2: Does global cooling cause heat-waves?
    20100620 - Chapter 5 Greening Planet added.
    20100606 - placed the whole section on the Web. Chapter 5 in progress. More changes and additions to come.
    20100530 - Chapters 1-4 ready for review

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